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Executive Summary

Minister's Executive Summary - Budget 2010
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
% GDP
Fiscal Year
Core Crown net debt
Budget 2009 - no policy change
Budget 2009
Budget 2010
History
Forecast
Projection
GDP figures include historical revisions made by Statistics 
New Zealand in December 2009.  Previous projections have been 
adjusted for these, to ensure comparability across years. 
Source: The Treasury 
Figure 10 – Net international investment position 
(Q2, 2009) 
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
New 
Zealand
Australia
Euro Area
United 
Kingdom
Canada
Germany
Japan
% of GDP
Sources:  Statistics New Zealand, IMF, Ministry of Finance 
Japan, The Treasury 
14   |   MINISTER’S EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Maintaining Firm Control of the Government’s Finances 
The short-term aim of the fiscal 
strategy is to return to surplus as 
quickly as is practical. 
The fiscal outlook is improving, thanks 
in part to the positive impact of Budget 
2009 decisions to restrain the rate of 
growth of government spending.  
Figure 9 shows how, from the situation 
of explosive debt levels which the 
Government faced in late 2008, net 
debt is now forecast to peak at 27% of 
GDP in 2014/15, falling to 14% of GDP 
at the end of the projection period in 
2023/24. 
However, deficits are still forecast until 2015/16. It was sensible during the crisis for the 
Government to absorb some of the impact of the shock and protect New Zealanders from 
the hardest edges of recession. But with the crisis receding and the economy growing 
again, now is the time to start bringing the accounts back into surplus. 
Current projections show that it will require a further decade of disciplined fiscal 
management to deal with the effects of the global financial crisis and the huge lift in 
Government spending during the boom years leading up to that crisis.   
Reducing debt to more prudent levels is important for a range of reasons.  It reduces 
vulnerability to future shocks, limits the increase in finance costs, and provides future 
Governments with more fiscal options. 
Low government debt is particularly 
important for New Zealand in light of 
the country’s high net foreign liabilities 
(see Figure 10).  We have seen 
increasing concern about public debt 
in recent times, and a number of 
countries around the world are having 
to consider or enact painful cuts to 
public services or increase taxes as a 
result of unsustainable debt levels.   
New Zealand has one of the highest 
net external debt positions in the world 
– reflecting a combination of 
household, business and government 
debt. Low government debt before the 
crisis had been one of the offsetting considerations to both international investors and 
rating agencies when they were assessing the country’s riskiness. This cannot be taken 
for granted.  The Government is committed to continuing maintaining New Zealand’s 
creditworthiness and limiting the cost of credit to domestic borrowers. 
Figure 9 – Net debt  
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
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